10 Events To Trigger SEC Expansion

Ten Events That Could Trigger SEC Expansion

Aug 1st, 2011

By S.M. Oliva
SaturdayDownSouth.com

In my previous article describing a possible future for the SEC (c. 2021), I accepted the conference’s expansion to 16 schools as a foregone conclusion. Even the comments on the article seemed to concur that expansion would happen, although there was spirited disagreement over what four schools would join. Of course, I was not making a prediction, merely offering one of any number of expansion scenarios.

But in order to project where the SEC might expand, we should first consider the factors that may (or will) prompt expansion. It’s not so much a question of whether SEC leaders want to expand, but whether certain internal or external factors will force the issue. Below I consider ten such factors.

1. Texas A&M wants out from under Texas’ thumb

Just as every NFL expansion/relocation scenario starts with Los Angeles, every SEC expansion discussion begins with College Station, Texas. During the 2010 conference reshuffling, numerous reports claimed Texas A&M was able, willing and ready to jump from the sinking ship of the Big 12 to the SEC. While that didn’t happen — and SEC Commissioner Mike Slive refused to confirm he ever offered A&M membership — the rumors never died. Just recently some outlets reported, yet again, that A&M was on the verge of becoming the SEC’s 13th membership. And once again, nobody in a position of authority at either College Station or the SEC offices in Atlanta gave any public indication that such a move was in the offering.

It doesn’t matter if the rumors are substantiated. There is clearly grassroots support at the fan and booster levels for an A&M move. The question is if and when the movement reaches critical mass. Some would say that moment has come with the creation of the all-Texas, all-the-time Longhorn Network, a joint venture with ESPN. The network’s creation was Texas’ price for not jumping to the Pac-12 during the last round of conference realignment, and that only reinforces A&M second-class status (at least in the minds of many A&M boosters). If the network succeeds and further entrenches Texas at the top of the Big 12, it’s almost impossible to see why A&M wouldn’t beg the SEC to take it in.

2. The Longhorn and Pac-12 Networks will force the SEC to adapt to a changing media landscape

The Longhorn Network isn’t just a Texas A&M problem. The SEC faces a constantly evolving media landscape. Just witness the recent announcement of the Pac-12 Network, which will include a national cable network and six regional networks in each of the conference’s states. While the SEC has a lucrative long-term television contract with ESPN, Texas and the Pac-12 are betting their futures on more targeted distribution channels. College football as a whole is ripe for this type of audience-specific programming, and if the SEC doesn’t want to lose its competitive edge, it will need to find new and better ways to develop such channels.

This leads directly back to expansion, particularly Texas A&M. If the SEC wants to form a Pac-12-like network, for example, having a presence in Texas would certainly be helpful.

3. Texas goes independent, leaving Oklahoma and Missouri behind as “free agents”

For its part, Texas looks at the Longhorn Network as a trial balloon for full-blown independent status. It may sound nuts in theory — the only major independents are the military academies at West Point and Annapolis and the sectarian Notre Dame and BYU — but with the Big 12 on life support, Texas has a viable claim to be the first major public independent football power since before Penn State joined the Big 10.

If Texas declares independence sooner rather than later, the rest of the Big 12 will be left scrambling to find new conference homes. From the SEC’s perspective, Oklahoma and Missouri would be attractive targets. Oklahoma has tradition and a substantial alumni base, while Missouri straddles two lucrative media markets.

4. Conversely, the SEC will need to defend its home turf from Big 10 and Texas/Big 12 encroachment

Missouri and Oklahoma would also be attractive targets for the Big Ten, but Commissioner Jim Delaney and company may also look towards a “Southern offensive” with eyes on building a foothold for the Big Ten Network in SEC territory. While it’s inconceivable an SEC school would turn Yankee, ACC schools like Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech would fit the Big Ten’s profile and expand its footprint. This could prompt the SEC to look inward for expansion, inviting schools that share a state with the SEC — Clemson, Louisville, Florida State, and the aforementioned Georgia Tech — to create a united South.

5. The ACC is ripe for the picking

It’s not coincidental that most of the schools mentioned above all hail from the ACC. The conference is stagnant if not in freefall. North Carolina’s recent ouster of Butch Davis — and the likely NCAA sanctions to follow — will halt that program’s nascent progress. Florida State and Virginia Tech remain the sole football powers within a conference that remains wedded to its Tobacco Road basketball identity. The 2004­–2005 expansion that brought Tech, Miami, and Boston College has not significantly improved the conference’s football prowess (no ACC school has played for a BCS title since Florida State won in 1999).

The conference will only fall further behind the SEC and Big 10 as the decade continues. That makes the conference’s outlying football provinces — Virginia Tech and Florida State — susceptible to an invitation from the SEC or another expansion-minded conference. If there is a full-scale stampede away from the SEC, lesser prizes like Clemson and Maryland may also be available.

6. Mounting NCAA scandals lead to a “strength in numbers” defense

Every week brings a new scandal, particularly in the Age of Twitter. Auburn, Alabama, and Tennessee have been under the gun lately, and it’s likely that every SEC program (sans perhaps Vanderbilt) will face a fresh round of real or imagined allegations over the next few years. Oddly enough, this may provide additional impetus for expansion, as the SEC seeks additional members to help cushion the blow should any one member — particularly a heavy hitter like the three aforementioned schools — suffer a major setback at the hands of the NCAA.

7. The Longhorn Network stumbles, the Big 12 crumbles, and Texas joins forces with the enemy

As an alternative to the scenarios above, it’s entirely possible the Longhorn Network fails to give Texas the leverage it needs to go independent — yet the Big 12 still crumbles as other conferences steal away the other schools. Could such a scenario lead to Texas joining forces with the SEC? It could be sold as a “merger of equals” with the Longhorn Network merging into an SEC Network that mimics the new Pac 12 arrangement. The SEC plus Texas would certainly cement the conference’s top-dog standing over the Pac 12 and Big Ten, and it might even prompt the eventual secession of the “mega-conferences” into a new, playoff-equipped college football alliance.

8. The BCS crumbles under political attack, prompting the rush to create playoff-ready “superconferences”

Speaking of playoffs, the political war against the BCS has only just begun. Utah is preparing an antitrust lawsuit, which the Justice Department could join, and the recent Fiesta Bowl financial scandal will only further calls for greater regulatory scrutiny of the decentralized BCS system. Even if government officials don’t bring the BCS down directly, the cumulative weight may force the system’s leaders — that is, the conference commissioners — to abandon ship. As noted above, this likely means the major conferences will look to expand and secede from the NCAA altogether; 16-team conferences are likely the entrance requirement to get into the next postseason system.

9. A second-tier school — that nonetheless meets the SEC’s profile — makes a major investment to move up

The above scenarios all address existing “Big Six” conference programs moving to the SEC. But college football isn’t a static industry. Lower-tier programs are always pressing — and paying — to move up. Memphis, UAB and East Carolina are two examples of schools that could fit the SEC profile

10. Something really crazy happens

Really, the only scenario I would place in this category is the leadership at Notre Dame goes nuts and begs to join the SEC. I can’t even explain why this might happen or why it would make sense. But unexpected things do happen in sports with some regularity (i.e. Lane Kiffin’s career).