A Pro Scout Breaks Down Cousins And Orton

Tuesday, April 13, 2010

Scout Breakdown of Daniel Orton and DeMarcus Cousins

Bluegrass State Basketball

I spoke to professional basketball scout and consultant Brian Levy recently about several players that have declared for the NBA Draft. He has sent me some detailed scouting reports that give further insight into what professional organizations are thinking.

Tonight, we look at Kentucky's freshmen big men: DeMarcus Cousins and Daniel Orton:

Brian Levy is currently a professional basketball scout and consultant. He most recently served as the Director of Operations for the East Kentucky Miners, where he evaluated talent for 2 Continental Basketball Association Drafts. Brian resides in Louisville, KY.

Daniel Orton

Projected Middle to Late 1st Rd Pick

I’m not really sure what you’re going to get with this guy. He’s shown us glimpses of his vast potential, but coming off the bench and averaging only 13 minutes per game, it’s hard to get a good read on him. Beyond being used only sparingly for the majority of this year, he missed his senior season of high school with a knee injury. What we do know is that he will win points with his willingness to get after it defensively, contesting shots and protecting the basket. In about half the minutes, Orton ended up averaging almost as many blocks per game (1.4bpg) as Demarcus Cousins (1.8bpg). In addition to his defense, he rebounds well in and out of his area, which means he will be able to contribute to an NBA team right away. Offensively, he’s somewhat limited, relying on others to create his scoring opportunities. It might be some time before he becomes an effective low post scorer. Combine that with his dreadful free throw percentage (52%) and his tendency to pick up cheap fouls, Orton will find it hard to log many minutes his rookie season.

I contend that Orton has a lot to gain by returning to Kentucky for his sophomore season. He would have the opportunity to mature and grow his game offensively, improving his draft position for next year. I believe if he stayed healthy he could be a top 5 pick in the 2011 Draft. But I can’t blame Orton for his decision to go pro because there are a handful of teams high on him, and he seems primed to be selected in the middle of the first round. The guaranteed contract, and money, that comes with being a first round selection is hard to pass up when it’s in front of you but Orton is the one guy who would stand to make considerably more money next year. In the end Orton decided the guarantee of about $10million in 2010 was safer than the near $20million he could have earned had he stayed one more year.

NBA Comparison: Brendan Haywood

Demarcus Cousins

Projected Top 5 Pick

There might not be a more efficient scorer and rebounder in the country than Demarcus Cousins. In just over 23 minutes per game, Cousins managed to put up 15ppg & 10rpg. His Per 40 Minute averages come out to about 27ppg and 17rpg. Even more impressive is his 1.56pps. That’s Points Per Shot, meaning Cousins is taking, but more importantly, making, high percentage shots, so much so that almost every time he shoots the ball, you’re getting more than a point and a half. A lot of these numbers are due to Cousins’ rare combination of abilities. He has nimble feet, soft hands, maintains good body control and tops it all off with a mean streak that’s not usually found in someone so technically skilled. Cousins uses that mean streak defensively, too. He takes pride in contesting each and every shot, blocking 1.8 shots each game, and altering even more. The only on-court improvements he’s going to have to make are increasing the range on his jump shot out to 15-18feet and becoming more consistent from the free throw line. Otherwise, physically, he is the full package, a pure back to the basket scorer and dominant rebounder that wants to play defense.

Emotionally, it’s a different story. There are questions about his maturity, motivation and coachability. Questions how he will handle fame, fortune, pressure, failure. Most of these concerns are brought on by his constant pouting and overly-demonstrative actions on the court. These issues have branded Cousins as “mentally fragile.” This kind of label on a marginal prospect might push them to the 2nd round or lower, but with a talent like Cousins, it’s worth the risk for what he brings to the table.

At the end of the day, there was no other decision than to turn pro. He’ll most likely be taken between picks 3 and 5, depending on how NBA Draft Lottery shakes out. Some possible landing spots include Golden State and Sacramento. We’ll all just have to wait and see what happens when he signs a guaranteed $20million contract and goes to a perennial loser, if he can keep his head, and allow his physical skills to wipe away those mental doubts.

NBA Comparison: A Young Rasheed Wallace/Zach Randolph