The Bubble

From ESPN Insider

The Bubble Insider takes you deeper into the NCAA tournament bubble, and the latest look at it (via Joe Lunardi) can be found here.

Here today, gone tomorrow; such is the life of bubble teams in the final weeks of college basketball's regular season. On Monday, we mentioned that the Mississippi State Bulldogs entered Joe Lunardi's Bracketology. On Wednesday, they fell to the 15-15 Auburn Tigers, and now they're back out of the field.

Another team on the bubble, the Connecticut Huskies, remained in the field after falling to Big East bubble buddy Notre Dame Fighting Irish. What gives?

The reason for Mississippi State's hasty departure is its poor portfolio (ratings percentage index of 59, strength of schedule of 126, 1-3 record versus the RPI top 50). Nothing in that line will make the selection committee think the Bulldogs should stick in the field.

Teams with little to show the committee beyond a gaudy W-L record -- particularly those with weak schedules -- have more to fear from untimely, late-season losses. That's the reason we've been writing that the Virginia Tech Hokies (SOS of 154) still have something to prove but a team like the Louisville Cardinals (three fewer wins but SOS of 7) is better positioned. The Hokies' top win was at home against Clemson. The Cardinals' best win came at Syracuse, a likely No. 1 seed. Pardon the pun, but that's truly comparing apples to oranges.

When you factor in schedule strength and big wins among those lingering in last four in, first four out territory, the breakdown gets a bit clearer.


The bubble as of Thursday
The top four teams listed here are currently Joe Lunardi's last four teams into the 2010 NCAA tournament.

Team name W-L RPI SOS W-L vs. RPI top 50
Notre Dame Fighting Irish 20-10 61 63 4-4
Connecticut Huskies 17-13 49 2 3-8
Rhode Island Rams 21-7 29 57 2-4
San Diego State Aztecs 19-8 33 53 2-5
Dayton Flyers 19-9 41 37 3-6
Memphis Tigers 22-8 51 78 2-5
UAB Blazers 23-6 42 106 1-2
Mississippi State Bulldogs 21-9 59 126 1-3
Based on these numbers, Memphis, UAB and Mississippi State have a lot of work to do yet. Even Notre Dame -- on an epic tear of late with wins over Pittsburgh, Georgetown and UConn -- must do more if it wants to snag a bid based on its own merits. Additionally, Virginia Tech, Illinois, Florida and Saint Mary's -- the four teams that reside directly above the "last four in" cut line -- shouldn't feel too cocky.

The only reason those schools should be confident is that the teams chasing them are mediocre at best. In fact, the three Big East teams outside the "first four out" all have better signature wins than the teams they are chasing -- Seton Hall (Pittsburgh), South Florida (Georgetown) and Cincinnati (Vanderbilt) all outshine Memphis (UAB), UAB (Butler) and Mississippi State (Old Dominion). Those Big East squads could slingshot past them with some conference tournament success.

In short, Saturday is a very, very important day for Mississippi State against the Tennessee Volunteers. One thing the Bulldogs have in their favor is that the teams around them will play some tough contests of their own this weekend.

Virginia Tech will square off with Georgia Tech in Atlanta. Florida will face No. 3 Kentucky in Lexington. Illinois will welcome No. 17 Wisconsin. Notre Dame will take on Marquette in Milwaukee. Connecticut and South Florida will tangle in a must-win for both teams in Tampa. Dayton will travel to Richmond on Thursday night before returning home to take on a St. Louis squad that topped it a month ago. UAB will round out the slate by traveling to meet regular-season Conference USA champ No. 21 UTEP.

That is a spike-laden gantlet that could pop a lot of our bubble teams. Only San Diego State, Rhode Island and Memphis appear to get off easily. Of course, we would have said the same thing about Mississippi State before the Bulldogs fell to Auburn.

Mike Hume is an editor for ESPN Insider who frequently writes about college basketball. You can find his online archives here.