Guestimations on SEC basketball

Are the Florida Gators really a Final Four team?

All five double-digit-scoring starters are back, and Billy Donovan put together a top-10 class to quell last season's depth concerns. But UF couldn't play defense (allowing 94.9 points per 100 possessions, 67th in the nation) last season and ranked eighth in the league in scoring -- as stagnant an offense as Florida has seen since the 1990s.



Donovan's squad is still the favorite to win the SEC, and a tough early-season schedule should make the conference games seem like a cakewalk. Ohio State will show up for the Gators' second game on Nov. 16, and the Gators follow the Buckeyes with nonconference showdowns against Florida State, Kansas State and Xavier. If Florida goes 3-1 during that stretch, a No. 1 seed should be in order. Not to mention the bonus of being battle-tested come March.

Early guess: It'll be tough to pick against Florida as an early favorite for the Final Four. Even though sophomore Kenny Boynton (14.0 points per game) failed to make the preseason All-SEC first team, we're predicting the former top-10 prospect to be the breakout star of the league. Seniors Chandler Parsons, Alex Tyus and Vernon Macklin combined with Boynton and junior Erving Walker to score 85 percent of the team's points last season. Add sophomore Erik Murphy (who will be the surprise player of the season), freshmen Patric Young (No. 6 power forward in the 2010 class) and Casey Prather (No. 8 small forward) to that mix, and lighting up the scoreboard shouldn't be a problem.




Will Brandon Knight reach John Wall status?

There's an entire lineup's worth of new names in Lexington, Ky., this season: Terrence Jones (No. 2 small forward in the 2010 class), Enes Kanter (No. 3 center), Doron Lamb (No. 6 shooting guard), Eloy Vargas (highly touted junior college power forward) and Stacey Poole (top-20 shooting guard). But all eyes will be on Knight, the No. 4 overall recruit who has the unenviable task of replacing Wall, last season's SEC Player of the Year.



So what does reaching "Wall status" entail exactly? For starters, leading the team in points (16.6), assists (6.5) and steals (1. while being relied on more than arguably any other freshman in the country. Wall played a team-high 83.9 percent of UK's minutes and was involved in 27.3 percent of possessions, according to Ken Pomeroy's metrics. (His one-and-done teammate DeMarcus Cousins was the only freshman used more by a major-conference team.)



Early guess: The magic eight ball answer: outlook not so good. Although expectations are high -- the media tabbed the 6-foot-3 point guard as a preseason first-team All-SEC selection -- and there's no ignoring his impressive credentials as back-to-back Gatorade POY in Florida, we just don't see him matching Wall's impact.

Wall will be remembered as the player who rejuvenated the restless Rupp Arena faithful, who hadn't seen their Wildcats reach the Elite Eight in five seasons. And freshman No. 1 overall picks don't just show up every season. Look at the metrics: Wall's offensive rating (108.0) and assist rate (34. easily bested the stats of former Memphis guard Tyreke Evans (101.0, 30.0), who went No. 4 to the Kings in the 2009 NBA draft and went on to win NBA Rookie of the Year.



Besides, with all those talented newcomers, and juniors Darius Miller and DeAndre Liggins returning, Knight won't need to be Wall for Kentucky to repeat as SEC champ.

Key Questions
Insider is examining a few critical issues in several conferences to kick off the 2010-11 NCAA basketball season.

How far can Scotty Hopson and Tobias Harris take Tennessee?

Maybe the question should be: "Can the program put on its blinders while the NCAA investigates Bruce Pearl?" Tennessee's future doesn't appear bright with the possibility of major violations looming, but all the current Vols can think about is how they were just one point short of the Final Four. No player has taken more blame than junior Hopson, who missed a free throw with 12 seconds left in the Elite Eight that would've sealed a win over Michigan State.



Big Orange country is waiting for Hopson to show up after two less-than-stellar seasons (10.7 ppg) from the former McDonald's All-American. Hopson and Pearl won't be the only ones feeling pressure, though. Harris, the No. 6 overall prospect of 2010, is already being touted as the second coming of Bernard King for his New York pedigree and ability to fill up the stat POOP (averaging 25 points, 14 rebounds and 3 blocks as a high school senior).



Early guess: Fortunately, it's not all on the shoulders of Harris and Hopson. Tennessee returns seven regular-rotation players and a recruiting class that barely missed the top 10. Unfortunately, Pearl lost leading scorer and rebounder Wayne Chism (12.6 ppg, 7.2 rpg) and top two guards Bobby Maze and J.P. Prince, who were the team leaders in assists and steals. All three seniors also had higher offensive ratings than Hopson (96.9), which is a major knock considering Hopson took a team-high 26.1 percent of the shots.



If the Vols can dominate on D (88.5 points per 100 possessions, ranked 11th in the country last season) and Hopson and Harris can improve the offense (64th in efficiency), a return to the Elite Eight is possible. Then maybe Pearl's impending fate won't steal the headlines in Knoxville.


The Bulldogs are the favorites to win the weak SEC West thanks to three of their top five scorers returning and the long-awaited debut of former McDonald's All-American Sidney. But about that NCAA tournament bid …



MSU will open the season minus the 6-10, 270-pounder's strong low-post presence while he serves a nine-game suspension for receiving benefits in high school. If that's not enough to scare coach Rick Stansbury, point guard Bost -- the team's leading assist man (5.2 per game) and No. 3 scorer (13.0 ppg) -- won't appear until the SEC slate starts because the junior missed the deadline to withdraw properly from the NBA draft by hours.



So Stansbury's squad could hit mid-major land mines (look out for Detroit) before Sidney returns to face Virginia Tech in the Bahamas. Bost, however, will miss the Diamond Head Classic in Hawaii, where MSU has a chance to bolster its NCAA résumé against Washington State and in possible tilts with Baylor and Florida State.



Early guess: Let's just say Stansbury had better do a good job of stalling. Without Sidney to fill the hole left in the middle by the departure of three-time SEC Defensive POY Jarvis Varnado, the Dawgs don't have a player taller than 6-8 to protect the paint. Varnado ranked fourth in the country in blocks percentage (14.2), and his double-double dominance (13.8 ppg, 10.3 rpg) will be tough to replace for a first-timer.



Bulldogs fans wouldn't be as uneasy if Bost -- who played the highest percentage of minutes (86.3) on the team and was used a team-high 23.5 percent of possessions -- were on the floor to start the season. Instead, juniors Ravern Johnson (13.2 ppg) and Kodi Augustus (8.9 ppg, 5.4 rpg) will be the only tested options until Bost returns.



Are there any other contenders in the weak West?


After Mississippi State, the drop-off is substantial. Ole Miss lost sophomore Terrico White (15.1 ppg) after he made a questionable decision to enter the draft, and third-leading scorer Murphy Holloway transferred to South Carolina. Arkansas lost two of its top four scorers in Courtney Fortson (17.9 points, 5.2 rebounds, 5.7 assists in 18 games) and Michael Washington (12.5 ppg, 6.1 rpg); Alabama lost leading scorer and setup man Mikhail Torrance (15.6 ppg, 5.1 apg); Auburn lost its three top scorers (DeWayne Reed, Tay Waller and Lucas Hargrove) to graduation; and, finally, LSU lost its top two scorers, Tasmin Mitchell (who graduated) and Bo Spencer (who transferred to Nebraska).



Early guess: Don't worry about the West. No team in the division ranked higher than 35th nationally in offensive efficiency (Mississippi) and 44th in defensive efficiency (Mississippi State). Barring a possible run by the Bulldogs, those rankings won't change much this season. None of the teams brought in a top-25 recruiting class, and only five prospects from the ESPNU 100 picked the division, compared to 12 who went to the East. Other than LSU's Final Four run four seasons ago, just one team from the SEC West has reached the Elite Eight since 2003-04.



LaRue Cook is a researcher/reporter for ESPN The Magazine and a frequent contributor to Insider. You

Good post Mule.

Whoa. We're talking Final Four here? Let's just get to the Sweet Sixteen. I would just like to see us win either the regular season SEC or the Tournament. I can't see a Final Four berth this year. Those freshmen would really have to step up for that to happen.

LaRue Cook snorts crack I think.