The Obama magic has disappeared

By JIM VANDEHEI & MIKE ALLEN | 1/20/10 9:50 AM EST

Think back a year ago and imagine someone saying Obama would throw his support behind Democrats in New Jersey, Virginia and Ted Kennedy's Massachusetts - and lose all of them.

Think back a year ago and imagine someone saying he would celebrate his one-year anniversary without having gotten health care, financial regulation or energy legislation signed into law. And that less than 50 percent of the public would hold a favorable view of his presidency.

Obama clearly remains popular at the personal level, a big asset that Republicans privately concede could easily help turn things around for this White House in the months ahead. But it is similarly clear that the Obama magic of 2008 has vanished. His personal popularity is plainly not transferable to other Democrats. His power with Democrats is somewhat diminished.

So much now rides on health care for Obama. His top advisers have told reporters for months he will be judged on one issue and one issue alone: getting health care signed into law. They now realize the bill – and with it Obama’s reputation and leverage on Capitol Hill – could go down. As they look ahead to the rest of the year, White House advisers talk publicly of bold action but most of the talk in private is smaller, less controversial action. Deficits. Incremental changes to energy policy. Debt commissions.

This is not the way Obama—or many of the people watching him at his inaugural address a year ago-expected that he would mark his first anniversary.