Kentucky basketball's strength of schedule ranking draws many critics

Kentucky basketball's strength of schedule ranking draws many critics

By Brett Dawson • bdawson@courier-journal.co

LEXINGTON, Ky. — Though he has a Facebook page, a massive Twitter following and a wildly popular Web site, University of Kentucky basketball coach John Calipari is no fan of computers.

The machines, in turn, aren't so fond of the schedule Calipari's Wildcats have faced this season.

While three computer rankings rate UK's schedule among the weakest played by top 10 teams this season, Calipari has little doubt it's prepared his team for postseason play, which for the Cats begins Friday at the Southeastern Conference Tournament in Nashville, Tenn.

“The greatest thing is, this isn't a video game,” Calipari said Tuesday. “This is real people playing with a real basketball in front of real fans. It ain't on the computer. It's not numbers. None of that. We've been prepared by how we've played all season.”
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Those calculating computers might disagree.

On Tuesday UK was No.?3 in the Ratings Percentage Index, a mathematical formula used to help select and seed the NCAA Tournament field, but its RPI strength of schedule was No.?38.

The Cats were ranked No.?4 on Monday in Jeff Sagarin's computer rankings, but their schedule ranked No.?63.

Ken Pomeroy's computer rankings, which factor whom a team has beaten and how it has beaten them and ranks teams based on a calculation for expected winning percentage, list UK ninth nationally but rank its schedule No.?62.

In all three rankings, only one top 10 team — New Mexico in the RPI, and BYU in the Sagarin and Pomeroy rankings — had a lower strength of schedule than UK.

That doesn't mean the Cats haven't been tested.

UK (29-2, 14-2 Southeastern Conference) won its games by an average of 14.1 points and by 10.1 points in SEC play, but it had seven games decided by seven points or fewer.

“The strength of schedule, I don't really believe in that, because every game we play has been a tough game, no matter what team it was …” forward DeMarcus Cousins said. “I think we've played a pretty tough schedule.”

Pomeroy isn't so sure.

The reason the Cats suffer in his rankings, he said in an e-mail, is that “they haven't played elite teams, so it's difficult to get a good gauge on how they relate statistically to Kansas,” the nation's No.?1 team.


UK's games at Vanderbilt, Mississippi State and Tennessee are “a good simulation of how they'd do against a 3-5 seed” in the NCAA Tournament, Pomeroy wrote. But the SEC hasn't offered UK a competitor that compares to the NCAA's elite.

“They remind me of Butler,” Pomeroy wrote. “Not that the two teams are comparable in skill, but Butler is clearly much better than its conference, but it's not clear what that means for them relative to other Top 25 teams. UK is clearly better than the SEC (and Louisville and UConn), but there's a way to go between that statement and inferring that they are the best team in the country.”

That doesn't necessarily mean the Cats aren't.

But if it goes on to win the NCAA championship, UK would be a rarity relative to schedule strength.
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Pomeroy's rankings are available dating to 2004, and since then, the lowest-ranked schedule strength of a national champion has been Florida's 2006 champs, which ranked 50th.

The Cats' 63-ranked schedule in the Sagarin ratings would be the lowest by a national champ in that ranking, which is available dating to 1999. Florida's 2007 champions played a schedule ranked No.?48.

The RPI ranks UK's 2009-10 schedule 38th. That's better than one champion since 2003. Florida's 2006 title team had a schedule ranked 66th by the RPI.

That's not to say Calipari didn't try to challenge his team this season.

As he pointed out, the Cats played North Carolina, Connecticut and Louisville, ranked No.?6, No.?12 and No.?19 in The Associated Press preseason Top 25. But those teams failed to live up to expectations.

As it turns out, the Cats' best win in the eyes of the RPI is against Tennessee, which ranks 13th. UK also has two wins against Vanderbilt, which ranks 22nd in the RPI.

“You schedule the teams that you think are going to be the best teams to prepare you, and that's what we did,” Calipari said. “So I don't think it's going to hurt us in any way. When you look at our schedule, you say, ‘Wow, they played a good schedule. They took on all comers.' The other thing is, when you're us, when you're Kansas and when you're a few other teams, you're going to get everybody's best shot, and it prepares you.”

And that's an intangible factor that computers can't account for.

CBS analyst Greg Anthony played at UNLV in the early 1990s, when the Runnin' Rebels were in the Big West, a league that wasn't mentioned in the same breath as the Big East or the ACC.

Any consideration of UK's schedule, Anthony said, has to take into account the target on the Cats' back.

“They're playing with that bull's-eye, and I think they've gotten a really good test,” Anthony said. “People always talk about, ‘They struggle against these teams' as a negative.' I look at it as the opposite. I like a team that wins when they don't play well, because in the (NCAA) Tournament, you're not going to play six great games.”

No one knew UNC and UConn would suck this year, We beat Louisville and they beat Syracuse twice, And we beat Vandy twice, We beat UT once and they beat Kansas, I say we have played a very good schedule, no one knows how top 25 teams are going to do at the beginning of the year, Its time for the Cats to roll in the NCAA tournament!!

BestdamnUKfanperiod wrote:No one knew UNC and UConn would suck this year, We beat Louisville and they beat Syracuse twice, And we beat Vandy twice, We beat UT once and they beat Kansas, I say we have played a very good schedule, no one knows how top 25 teams are going to do at the beginning of the year, Its time for the Cats to roll in the NCAA tournament!!

My thoughts exactly BD. ^^

Now that the season's over, Cal will have the Wallcats ready to play like champs. You're gonna see an explosion of power and speed like you haven't seen all year.

Two things that need to happen:

1. Cuz needs to be prepared to shoot 20 FTs a game. Nobody has an answer for Cuz.

2. Cal needs to call at least 4 plays per game for PPat to shoot the three. Teams will give him the "one per game" if they don't think he'll step out there and do it again.

just win and shut these nerds up!!!!! go cats!!!

mmmmm, what was the RPI before the first games were played this year??? I hate computers

People hate seeing Uk on top.. why even bring up crap like this?

BDUKFP, you're right. These computer stats are based on a pre-season ranking if I'm not mistaken. A lot of these teams that were "top 10" teams early in the season aren't worth a POOP now so that's where these computer rankings are garbage. As bluebox said, just win and shut these idiots up. My favorite part of the article is where it says we haven't been tested like Kansas has! That blows my mind. If they were arguing about how hard it is to win games in the Big East night in and night out then I'd have to agree with them but saying that the Big 12 is a tough schedule is ridiculous. I'd love it if UK could play in the Big East. For some reason I love watching Big East ball. Seems there's always a great matchup. Go ahead, throw tomatoes at me!

The computers also don't measure that UConn simply gave up and played with zero heart down the stretch but was much more motivated at the beginning of the season. UNC got hit hard by the injury bug much like what happened to us two years ago. IU's season also went to the pot when Maurice Creek went down for the season, not that they would've been a power but far better than their final record. Loserville was a jekyll & hyde team all year long but is very talented. I love it though b/c we're at our best when were hated by the rest of the country, critics included. Now it's time to shut em all up and have a big run in the postseason.

Gooooooooooo Cats!!!

I agree with Agent, those rankings dont show what a psychological blow it was to have to play UK and really screw up the rest of your season.