Thought of unbeaten season for Kentucky just perfectionist fallacy

Thought of unbeaten season for Kentucky just perfectionist fallacy
Jan. 26, 2010
By Gary Parrish
CBSSports.com Senior Writer
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Kentucky plays Tuesday night at South Carolina.

It'll be a wild atmosphere.

USC's Devan Downey will be exciting.

But in the end, I suspect, the top-ranked Wildcats will win and move to 20-0, at which point they'll be halfway to a 40-0 season that would, if it happened, represent a national championship and the best record in the history of college basketball. So that's the current hot topic of this sport: Will UK finish undefeated?

I'm regularly asked about it on various radio shows. We talked about it Monday night on Courtside with Seth Davis. And though I acknowledge each time that it is indeed possible -- primarily because the Wildcats have three likely lottery picks in John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins and Patrick Patterson -- I always explain that it's also, to borrow a phrase from Brett Favre, highly unlikely.

Why?

Because even great teams lose in this sport, that's why. Lest we forget the North Carolina team that featured four subsequent draft picks and won last season's NCAA tournament lost to Boston College and Wake Forest in January, then lost to Maryland in February. Just like the Kansas team that featured five subsequent draft picks and won the 2008 NCAA tournament lost to Kansas State in January, then lost to Texas and Oklahoma State in February. Just like the Florida team that featured five subsequent draft picks and won the 2007 NCAA tournament lost to Kansas and Florida State in December, then lost to Vanderbilt, LSU and Tennessee in February.

I could keep going, but you get the point.

Even great teams lose.

It usually happens on the road, but it can happen at home. Sometimes it's because somebody gets hurt. Sometimes it's because an opposing player goes bananas. Sometimes it's at the buzzer. Sometimes it's a blowout. But regardless of why or how it happens, the important thing to remember is that, for the past 33 seasons, it has always happened, and that's the best reason to believe it'll happen again. If you want another reason, there's the fact that UK has already been at risk many times, even to grossly inferior teams. The Wildcats nearly lost early at home to Miami (Ohio), then needed overtime to get past Stanford on the night before Thanksgiving. They had to hold on to beat an average North Carolina team last month, needed some late heroics by Wall to beat Connecticut four days later, trailed Louisville in the second half early this month, then almost lost to Georgia at Rupp Arena in the SEC opener.

That's a lot of close calls, particularly when you consider the Wildcats haven't played the nation's toughest schedule. In fact, their schedule is rated 135th at KenPom.com. They've played only one team (No. 19 Connecticut) that's ranked in the latest AP poll, zero teams that are ranked in the latest Top 25 (and one). Their most difficult road game to date has been at Florida, a place South Alabama also won. And their three toughest tests -- at Mississippi State on Feb. 16, at No. 21 Vanderbilt on Feb. 20, and at No. 14 Tennessee on Feb. 27 -- are still to come, which is why it's difficult to envision a scenario where Kentucky navigates through February without taking a loss.

Where will it happen?

No idea.

Tennessee is the obvious choice.

Vanderbilt is likely.

Mississippi State is possible.

Why not Georgia on March 3?

If you're into projections, KenPom.com has Kentucky winning at Mississippi State by a point, then losing at Vandy by a point and at Tennessee by two points before closing the road portion of its schedule with a 75-68 win at Georgia. According to the site, the Wildcats will enter the SEC tournament with a 29-2 record, and that seems reasonable to me. Could be 30-1, I guess. But either way, the point is the same, that it'll be surprising if the Wildcats are still perfect when they celebrate Senior Day on March 7 against Florida.

So I suggest we temporarily pause the conversation.

Till the night of March 3.

If the Wildcats win at Georgia and move to 30-0 with zero road games remaining, then, by all means, feel free to restart the debate. Hell, I'll restart the debate, and what I'll tell you is that, absolutely, John Calipari is about to win his first national title, and that he's going to do it with a perfect 40-0 record. Honestly, I'll go ahead and tell you now that I think Calipari will win his first national title, that barring a notable injury between now and Selection Sunday you can count on me picking UK to win it all. But there's a massive difference in this era between winning it all and winning it all with a perfect record. So put me down as someone who'll be surprised if the latter ever happens again, and by ever, yes, I mean this season, too.